Download PDF How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices By Annie Duke
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Ebook About Through a blend of compelling exercises, illustrations, and stories, the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker.What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut. What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second-guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive? Making good decisions doesn't have to be a series of endless guesswork. Rather, it's a teachable skill that anyone can sharpen. In How to Decide, bestselling author Annie Duke and former professional poker player lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll learn: • To identify and dismantle hidden biases. • To extract the highest quality feedback from those whose advice you seek. • To more accurately identify the influence of luck in the outcome of your decisions. • When to decide fast, when to decide slow, and when to decide in advance. • To make decisions that more effectively help you to realize your goals and live your values.Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.Book How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices Review :
Duke provides decent tactics and approaches to problem solving, which she calls decision-making (but it's really problem solving.) Why make a decision unless you perceive you have a problem to solve? There is nothing new here, and I would expect anyone buying this book has probably already read the classics in the field of problem solving, including Senge's 5th Discipline and his Fieldbook (recommended), along with any of the writers in the CQI/TQM field including Deming, Juran, and Crosby. Duke also borrows heavily from well published personal skills topics, from REBT to assertiveness and esteem research findings. I'm not saying she's simply rehashing things, as she puts her own perspective and recombination on these older models. But, she's not saying anything truly new, and I find that the original writers and their works made their cases both more clearly and more applicable to broader situations, such as organizational, leadership, systemic, and adaptive ones.Her examples and expectations for the usage of her tactics all focus on the individual making the decision, as if an individual's decision affects only that one person. Plainly, any decision that I make affects many people, some very close to me and some who are strangers. She seems unwilling/unable to apply systems thinking to her mindset. Without thinking systemically, her tactics come across as either self-centered at worst or oblivious to the reality of the ripple effects of any one person's actions at best. She also asks much of the reader in her multiple exercises when she requires the reader to clearly recall a situation that exactly fits one of her notions, and then to self-analyze that recalled situation. That's very difficult to do; personally, I had no luck at all in effectively recalling enough detail in past life events to complete even one of her many exercises. Last, she annoyingly used closed ended questions when prompting the reader for conclusions about his/her learning from each exercise. Example (paraphrased): "Did you gain any insight into your tendency to use comfirmation bias?" As a PhD in psychology, I would have assumed she had learned to use open ended questions to prompt for in-depth self--reflection, in this case asking "What did you learn about your tendencey to use confirmation bias?" Overall, there are far more thorough and engaging books on the topic of effective problem solving and decision making. Duke isn't bad; it's just that she's not good. I’ve used Annie Duke's prequel “Thinking in Bets” to describe everything from understanding passive aggressive behavior to prioritizing work decisions. Her follow on book — part practical advice, part roll up your sleeves workbook, part behavioral science treatise - is superb and has become part of my go-to personal and business library (I read a pre-release copy of the manuscript, disclaimer, I have an acknowledgement). The book builds up your decision making acumen by forcing you to think about the frameworks — implicit or explicit — you’ve assembled over time. Some highlights: thinking about pre-mortems as a way to enumerate all possible failure modes and detect them before you end up in post-failure decision states. Differentiating earned or intentional outcomes — results of actions or decisions — from “luck” or outcomes that were not the result of a decision (whether this is losing to a 48-1 draw in poker or a confluence of bad events in the business world, it’s the same thing). Keying on decisions that are repeatable and outputs that create happiness for you; considering the impact of “free rolls” (decisions where there is limited downside for a good upside, like buying a lottery ticket or going on an informational job interview). Finally, I found the dissection of the language of probability quite powerful; it simply helps people to normalize their confidence and risk tolerance ranges using vernacular like “a lot” or “likely” and then translating that into actual, comparable ranges. My electronic copy is a ready reference; have already used the pre-mortem examples several times to play out the “This Is Us” trope of “What’s the worst that could happen?” When you examine your options using rigor, you eliminate some of those worst options. 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